Will we face empires’ power breakdown?

3 03 2012

One of the recent TED Talks, led by Paddy Ashdown, titled “The global power shift” is a talk about what may happen in a modern world. It is worth seeing. In his opinion we are cursed to live in a very unpredictable and unpeaceful reality, where the balance can be disrupted and the effects can be devastating.

In fact the speaker states that in history, the crisises like one that we are experiencing now, used to end up with a huge wars. Moreover – we did not have such war since over 60 years… Shall we believe that mankind has learned now how to negotiate and avoid wars? No. It really can happen. Great power shift is very likely. Not necessarily by means of war, however all the modern superstates may loose their leadership. Because the world has never been like that before. What to do in order to survive these changes smoothly? I recommend wathing a video or reading my interpretation below.

Global organizations existence is a must. Paddy Ashdown emphasizes big role of over-the-nation organizations like United Nations or European Union. Their role would be to keep order among all countries.

Power shift is horizontal and vertical. It means that power goes from one country/region to another (horizontal) and also giving more possibilities (vertical). The result is that even the USA was not able to succeed on its own in Afghanistan and Iraq. These wars did not achieve goals (stable and trustworthy country). Situation would be even worse without help of other countries. So much money was invested…

The whole world is connected like it has never been before. It means that the World should be considered as a one mechanism. Things that happen in one part of it, influences the other ones. Swine flu in Mexico, causes an epidemia in Europe, floods in Russia causes lack of food in Germany, financial crisis in Greece influences all European Union countries. Although the Greece is not super-powerful country. It does not matter. We are part of the huge mechanism where every part is crucial. The poem cited by speaker is a really good metaphor.

As a summary… it’s worth saying that all of this can be just words that people would like to hear… Increase fear of the incoming war… It is just thrilling! People used to like it :) And this guy just likes to be on YouTube. Speaking about such things will surely allow him to be there. Maybe there is nothing to worry about?

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